ICI Project: Individual-based epidemic propagation simulator based on a Digital Twin
Résumé
Introduction
Multi-agent simulation can be used in the field of epidemiology to evaluate sanitary policies with a custom application
on targeted sub-population or location. A multi-disciplinary team of geomaticians and probabilists develops the
ICI project. It generates a very detailed and realistic geographical environment and simulates the propagation of an
indoor-driven epidemic in a middle sized city.
Methods
We create original data fusion algorithms using multiple datasources. We first model an exhausting census of activity
or housing units within each buildings with spatial and functional attributes. We then generate a geolocalized and
well-detailed synthetic population. Each individual is assigned to a building’s activity for every time-lapses of the
simulation. A last module calculates probabilities of infections with a 9-state epidemiological model. Monte-Carlo
replication are run in order to obtain robust results.
Results
A dedicated online application enables users to explore different characteristics of each set of input parameters
(characteristics of the contamination, policies application, geographical zone…) or output indicators (sub-population,
location of infection…). Spatio-temporal visual indicators are used to highlight spatial dynamic patterns. ICI
simulations are run by the OpenMOLE platform for model exploration purposes (sensitivity and diversity analysis,
multi-objective optimizations of sanitary policies).
Conclusion
The ICI platform makes it possible to elaborate and compare a wide range of precise sanitary policies onto well-
detailed urban models. It raised great interest in the interventional epidemiologist community. A collaboration with
public sanitary authorities starts in order to adapt the platform for the simulation of future pandemics. ICI is also part
of the French National Digital Twin project.
Domaines
Géographie
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